Do spring profits foreshadow an earnings winter?

500 firms start reporting first-quarter results, FactSet, a data firm, estimates that their total earnings per share fell for the first time since 2016, by 4.2% year on year. Last year profits were fertilised by President Donald Trump’s tax giveaway.

Now margins are shrinking and the world economy has slowed. After upward revisions a year ago, profit forecasters have been pruning rosy predictions for 2019 and 2020. Still, they are not expecting a prolonged earnings winter. Corporate America looks ever the hardy perennial.

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