Here’s what typically happens to the stock market next after such a strong first half

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Given the big gains in the first half and the upcoming election, history shows there could be more upside ahead.

Historical data shows the stock market could be in for more gains given its strong run thus far. The fact that it is an election year also bodes well. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 15% year to date, as the artificial intelligence craze has driven megacap technology names higher and investors hold on to hope that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later this year.

In years with the S & P 500 climbing more than 10% in the first six months, it jumped 7.9% in the typical second half. The index was positive in the latter half in more than four out of every five of these years. Presidential election years also typically bring returns in the second half of the year, according to Stovall's data. Looking at all election years since World War II, the S & P 500 added 0.9% and 2.4% in the average third and fourth quarters, respectively.

 

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