Someone once said that if the Federal Reserve has a reaction function,Evidence for that was on display on Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index for June showing the first decline since May of 2020., and the market priced in a near certainty of a September rate cut.
Before rounding, the year-0ver-year inflation rate was 2.97563 percent, which is the lowest rate since May of 2021’s 2.61863 percent. But it is only slightly below the 3.05326 percent recorded exactly one year ago. That’s important because it is a reminder that. Two months after the low of June 2023, we were back up to 3.7 percent.Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by a mild 0.1 percent.
“Unless the next couple of employment and inflation reports continue to surprise to the downside, investors may have become overly optimistic on the prospect of near-term rate cuts. Having been surprised by the earlier non-transitory nature of inflation and then this year’s first half inflation rebound, monetary policymakers run the risk of being whipsawed by the data. After all, super loose financial conditions are galvanizing aggregate demand in part because of rate cut expectations.
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