In a presidential election year, many economic surveys cannot escape the gravity of expectations about the outcome of the presidential election.over the three-year time horizon. Median three-years-ahead inflation expectations fell by 0.6 percentage points to 2.3 percent, the lowest level since the survey’s inception in June 2013.
—and in July they were expecting Trump to win. This would explain why inflation expectations would fall in what would be the second and third year of Trump’s second term—and then rise again under a successor. Further evidence for this can be seen in the breakdown of inflation expectations by educational attainment.In the New York Fed survey,, and they ticked up by one-tenth of a percentage point over the next three years and the next five years. That’s pretty much unchanged across the board.Inflation expectations among those with a high school degree or less, however, moved sharply.
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