Investor focus turns to data, election, earnings after Fed cut

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Edward Jones,Economic Data,Presidential Election

A roaring rally in U.S. stocks will face a gauntlet of economic data, looming political uncertainty and a corporate earnings test in coming weeks as...

NEW YORK - A roaring rally in U.S. stocks will face a gauntlet of economic data, looming political uncertainty and a corporate earnings test in coming weeks as investors navigate one of the most volatile periods of the year for equity markets.

"We're entering that period where seasonality has been a bit less favorable,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. "Despite the excitement about the start of the new rate-cutting cycle, it could still be a bumpy road ahead." Volatility also tends to pick up in October in election years, with the Cboe Market Volatility index rising to an average level of 25 at the start of the month, as opposed to its long-term average of 19.2, according to an Edward Jones analysis of the past eight presidential election years. The VIX was recently at 16.4.

Attention will be squarely on employment after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank wanted to stay ahead of any weakening in the job market as the Fed announced its cut this week. The closely-watched monthly U.S. jobs report is due on Oct 4. "We're going to have hyper-focus on anything that speaks to the strength of the labor force," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. Meanwhile, the rally in stocks has pushed up valuations.

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