Lower prices dim expectations for Alaska oil earnings in coming years, revenue forecast says

A network of pipelines, seen on Aug. 23, 2018, snakes through a portion of the Greater Prudhoe Bay Unit on Alaska's North Slope. Recent work in existing fields has helped slow the decline in North Slope oil production and new projects on the horizon might reverse that decline in future years, according to the latest Alaska Department of Natural Resources forecast.

Oil production through the end of the 2020s decade will also likely be lower than what was expected in the department’s previous forecast, released last spring, “but there is an expected increase in production and revenues after that,” Crum said. The forecast predicts a significant upswing in production in the latter part of the decade, eventually bringing average North Slope production to over 600,000 barrels per day in the early 2030s and 656,866 by the middle of that decade., the ConocoPhillips project that is on federal land and expected to produce up to 180,000 barrels per day at its peak. Willow production is expected to start in 2029.

While Willow is set to be a major oil producer, it is not expected to provide significant royalty income that could be used for the state budget, unlike fields that are located on state land. Under federal law, royalties from oil production within the petroleum reserve are to beOil income is less important to the state budget than it was in the past, when it contributed as much as aroundIn the 12 months that ended on June 30, oil money made up 37% of the state’s $6.

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Lower prices dim expectations for Alaska oil earnings in coming years, revenue forecast saysThe report says North Slope production will rise in a few years, but state oil revenue will decline through the end of the decade.
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Lower prices dim expectations for Alaska oil earnings in coming years, revenue forecast saysThe new forecast is more pessimistic about the state’s oil-money prospects over the next few years than was the department’s previous forecast, released in March.
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