As I run a market analysis service for over 8500 members and approximately 1000 money managers, there are a lot of things that are discussed and cited in our trading rooms. For example, this was noted by one of our members recently: I was just watching financial news The commentator was discussing the number of analysts on Wall Street declaring the 60:40 portfolio is dead. Forget about bonds, gold and cash. Investors should be 100% stocks and tech stocks should be the majority of that.
Those of us who have been around for more than a minute have heard this before. That certainly sounds like quite a wildly bullish perspective being held by Wall Street analysts regarding the stock market, does it not? In fact, it would seem most analysts now view 7000SPX as in the bag for 2025.I'd say expecting SPY to rise only 10-15% next year is pretty bearish. It rose 25% in 2023 and 30% in 2024. It should rise about 25-30% again if it's a normal year. Then again if we get a deep recession or something we'll only rise about 10-15%. And, it is not just the analysts that believe the market will only go higher. These two comments were typical of what I read in the comments section to various articles:A 20-25% drop of S&P is simply not possible. Going back to the Wall Street analyst perspective, I am sure that many of you have seen that the analysts from J.P. Morgan, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BMO, Deutsche Bank, RBC, Barclays and Wells Fargo all expect theIt should remind you that when the trend is strongest, that is when everyone, including Wall Street analysts, are certain that it will only continue in the same direction. As you can see from the chart, the consensus was quite strong that the market was going to continue to drop in October of 2022. But, I will also note that it was exactly at that time that I told the members of my services to expect a major market bottom around 3500SPX, with an initial price target of 4300SP
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