The stock market's sell-off was triggered by the coronavirus concerns, but the ingredients for a drop were already there.
So it was with commercial real estate defaults in the late 1990s, with Japan entering recession at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and with residential mortgage delinquencies in 2008. So it has been with the global concern over the novel coronavirus designated COVID-19. Something, even an event wholly unrelated to the market bubble, is always the immediate trigger of a meltdown., well before the ongoing viral crisis took hold of investors' – much less the world's – attention.
After all, in both 2003 and 2014 equity markets were a mere 30 months and 4.8 years, respectively, from their prior pre-recession highs, and 42% below and 23% above those prior highs, respectively. This leads to the conundrum voiced to me so often by frustrated investors: "what else are you going to do with your money?" Until very recently, for many, the answer appeared to be to wager it on additional valuation expansion in equities. I say valuation expansion because we clearly have not been seeing either rapid economic, nor any broad earnings, growth for over a year that could have justified prices paid for stocks.
DanielAlpert Or not. Every article about the stock market is now a Doomsday scenario to frighten and cause panic. It’s just a game to the media. There is never a care for the average person who can lose their retirement.
DanielAlpert Nah. Buying the dip.
DanielAlpert Wash your hands.
DanielAlpert Especially if the fear mongering continues.
DanielAlpert This is the BS that is being spread by people with not skin in the game. 'Could be'. You can never be wrong . If you are so sure, sell everything you have and short the market publicly, publish P&L regularly.
DanielAlpert Or this could be the end of the drop. So many possibilities...
DanielAlpert When you factor in the virus AND being overdue for a correction, yeah, I’d hold onto my hat.
DanielAlpert Agree.
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