is packed with drama: the 1929 crash; Black Monday in 1987, when share prices lost 20% in a day; the dotcom mania in 1999. With such precedents, nothing should come as a surprise, but the past eight weeks have been remarkable, nonetheless. A gut-wrenching sell-off in shares has been followed by a delirious rally in America. Between February 19th and March 23rd, the500 index lost a third of its value. With barely a pause it has since rocketed, recovering more than half its loss.
Start with events in the markets. Much of the improved mood is because of the Fed, which has acted more dramatically than other central banks, buying up assets on an unimagined scale. It is committed to purchasing even more corporate debt, including high-yield “junk” bonds. The market for new issues of corporate bonds, which froze in February, has reopened in spectacular style. Companies have issued $560bn of bonds in the past six weeks, double the normal level.
At one level, this makes good sense. Asset managers have to put money to work as best they can. But there is something wrong with how fast stock prices have moved and where they have got back to. American shares are now higher than they were in August. This would seem to imply that commerce and the broader economy can get back to business as usual. There are countless threats to such a prospect, but three stand out.
GinSecurities It’s priced in. How can the economist not realized this? 🙃
Since double-entry accounting was invented in Italy 700 years ago, why isn't it part of Western culture? Beethoven & Mozart are less than 300 yrs old. Maybe keeping the peasants ignorant is a longer standing tradition. Can't socialists figure that out?
Could a contributing factor be the relationship between the Federal Reserve and 'big four' enhanced by the 'big four' stockholdings in virtually every Fortune 500 corporation?
It is called market manipulation. Stock Market is a Legal Scam under market manipulation
The widening gap between the markets and Global real economy exactly shows that 'We r gonna see the worst situation ever seen for Global Real Economy' Entire world should start to get ready in order to fight against huge recession, unemployment and GDP RealEconomy MainStreet
Well we can rely on you to tell them how to fix it.
Entire World should start to get ready in order to fight against recession, unemployment, GDP shrinking issues and huge Profit falls. Not only shirinking GDP 42% but also roughly 40% of Lower-Income people losing jobs and 20% Profit losses gonna crash US Real Economy MainStreet
The widening gap between the markets and Global real economy exactly shows that 'We r gonna see the worst situation ever seen for Global Real Economy' Entire world should start to get ready in order to fight against huge recession, unemployment and GDP RealEconomy MainStreet
Stock piles would moved or not
The world is controlled by rich people with money supplied by central banks! Too much money pursuing for too little assets.
Consumption is on 'pause', not on decline, the stock prices reflect that. Depending on whether DT successfully eradicates the virus or chooses to tolerate its existence in the US will determine if consumption & stock prices return to old level or just stay low as people stay home
We are going to see stock indexes swing up and down through pressure from two distinct stock groups: 1) buying of safe haven and/or speculation for upswing companies 2) sell-off, real financial fallout. We are only seeing type 1 now. Type two sell-offs will be 30-60 day lag.
Those are rookie numbers
Unrealistic stock prices are to be expected... too many small and medium term (and experience) investors don't want to miss out on the sudden upswing when a vaccine or cure is announced. This, coupled with a large group who believe coronavirus measures are an over-reaction.
bcz fed is backing wall st.
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Central banks keep pumping $ into economies and it has to go SOMEwhere other than to the people who would actually spend it on things. It all goes into gambling on Wall Street.
The cause of this craziness is actually pretty simple..... the 1% er’s are spending large sums lifting the market. They have to - majority of wealth in it is there’s. They are hanging on for all they are worth - literally. Feds are influencing it as well but less so.
Bear market bounce. Once it touches the 200 day MA, it is going to be sled ride downhill on ice till we hit new lows, IMHO.
Trump and his mob have been manipulating the markets for the last several years.
Markets are far different from the economy
Trillions congress has appropriated has been used to prop up balance sheets of large Co. while layoffs kill long term growth prospects for the real economy. Stock market is now only a reflection of large Co balance sheets and nothing else.
The people have to gamble on something.
All for Good WithFear and Cheer govrned by the Country guards Viz T's Cabinet💐💐💐
ChiCom fake news outlet. Cancel paid subscriptions immediately.
Most stocks are way below their value last August. A few big tech stocks are propping the market up.
The Fed wasn’t buying in august, they’re now, don’t fight the fed
Can this be, what Robert Shiller would call, an 'irrational exuberance'?
It’s almost like the stock market is a made up number that doesn’t have a tanglible basis in reality yet literally is the guiding light for capitalist economies
This is the same outcry the Brit's propounded in the early and mid-1900's, and will inevitably result in the same outcome; let's all average down results to make our own expected outcomes more reasonable.
Agree. I work for a money management firm and we are all going 'what the F?'. Companies are NOT worth more than they were 6 to 9 months ago. That's crazy. Someone is manipulating something.
Trust the government. They know best...
SPY 350 calls
Hoping this new bill has money for small businesses
When companies stop buying their own stocks to increase share price true value will start to present itself
its not that. its... speculants wiht highpwoered computer systems run for years a cliff dance and know it and allofit wit hteh centralbanks averting the worst. barely. why are you surprised about this- thespeculants they- game the cliff. its waht theyre in its waht theyreabout
that's typical capitalism, you know
But QE was supposed to fix everything, what happened?
Wall Street and the markets are galaxies away from the reality of Main Street all over the world. That’s because the markets are fictional while Main Street is actual.
As long as Wall Street is happy, I’m happy. So what if I can’t eat? The Dow must remain strong.
I heard on NPR the term “decoupling” to describe the Market’s rise and stability in spite of the fact GDP fell by 4.8% and about 15% of people are unemployed. OK, I don’t believe in irrational exuberance; shouldn’t the SEC get involved to determine why the Market isn’t reacting?
Excellent article
The markets are pumped by the FED to increase Wealth Gap. Billionaires' stocks are like money. Workers retirement funds are pieces of paper showing an IOU from Wall Street that only has value when you sell in however many years you need to slave to be able to get it.
good article economists. I feel bad for saying some overly rude things to your poor twitter intern in the past. However my theory of Economists being perpetually a decade behind remains supported
Something is terribly wrong and the something is called central printing money banks
Indeed.
There is an increasing disconnection between Main Street and Wall Street. And I would bet it is not going to end well.
FergusonNews Plunge protection Team, Roll out!
That would be a great question to bring up for the 2020 election. Only if some media org asks it...
The stock market is just a chart of wealthy people's feelings.
Pump priming money has to go somewhere. Won't go to new, real investment. Central banks can now conjure an instant bubble
Nobody cares, the economy is totally fake and everyone knows. Why are you even pretending to care about this?
Gosh, there must be solutions The whole world looks at the IMF helpless
Just as planned
Everything that will gain humanity is not money
jaylboh Government only cares about big business and doesn't give a damn about Main Street.
Wall street Vs. Main street
Small business needs to prosper but people need to help
I love that the Economist thinks there are still main streets.
Reopening is the best thing for the real economy. We aren’t benefitting from stay home.
Don't be ridiculous, Canada's trade company started East West divide like East West Germany. You don't need to have that type of game.
HA HA! Your CRONIES have PRIORITY.
Can’t let the “Biggest to fail” go down or markets determine winners or losers. Rewarding failure is the currency of the “turbo printing FED & insider-trading politicians! But “who you know” always trumps “what you know!” Doesn’t it?
Only the big companies are profiting on this crises
can some one help me understand uncle sam. He's my name sake
Wall Street vs Main Street has been a growing divide the last couple of decades, pretty much since the dotcom boom/bust led to the housing boom/bust... boom bust WallStreet MainStreet
Stop complaining and buy more lobbyists!
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