A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, New York, U.S., March 3, 2020.The stock market's road to eventual recovery will stay choppy for the next few months, says Lori Calvasina, the head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
"We expect US equity markets to stay choppy in the months ahead and anticipate another significant drawdown," she said in a recent monthly note to clients. is unchanged at 2,750, about 4% below the market's current level. Her investing playbook for this view is largely unmodified as well. She recommends a balanced view on the market's trajectory by overweighting defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare, and using industrials to profit from the economy's recovery.
But May is proving to be a mixed if not negative bag, in Calvasina's view. China renewed lockdowns in some cities after new cases emerged, three New York children died after developing a rare COVID-19-related, and US authorities are warning about the health risks of opening the economy too quickly. Even though analysts have reined in their estimates for this year, 2021 is still too high because it is in line with actual 2019 earnings of $165, according to Calvasina. In other words, analysts expect that business activity will have fully recovered to pre-crisis levels by the end of next year.earnings estimates stabilized. And this is why the level of estimates matters to the market's direction. Institutional and retail investors never really capitulated during the March sell-off.
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