Stock Markets Are Surging. Is This A Bear Market Rally?

While the other impacts of the pandemic will take a long time to heal, the stock market has already recovered a significant portion of its losses. The rally has lifted markets in a remarkably short period of time—but the stock market surge isn’t an unprecedented event.

Here’s the thing about bear market rallies: They’re deceitful, because they can be long-lasting. Bear market rallies can go on for weeks or months before the market heads south again and bottoms out., bear market rallies since the end of 1927 have lasted an average of 627 days before indexes dropped lower and bottomed out. By Bloomberg’s count, the longest was 1,616 days, and the shortest was 133 days.

Since late March, there’s been an immense amount of volatility in markets. Stocks rallied by more than 20% as investors took heart from the fiscal and monetary policy measures put in place to carry the economy through the pandemic. Not least of these has been a boatload of new Federal Reserve lending programs and the $2 trillion federal stimulus package. Good news from human coronavirus vaccine trials has also played a role in buoying confidence.

Some experts argue that an increase in day trading due to commission-free trading, stimulus checks and the sole fact that Americans have more time on their hands as they’re locked down at home are contributing to the recent comebacks in the stock market. Bear market rallies can spook retail investors. Seeing the stock market crash, many retail investors might be tempted to sell before they incur anymore losses. Once they see the market spike higher, they might feel the need to get back in the game, in worry of missing out on some profits.Joe Duran, head of Goldman Sachs Personal Financial Management, calls this cycle of emotional reactions to short-term market moves a dangerous approach that investors should work to avoid.

Trump will take all the credit.

No. Fed rally. The best kind. Sort of.

Most pajama traders will be decimated then.

I think there must be some big time corruption going on !

I'm trying to figure out if these cruise lines are worth looking into. Anyone got any takes on carnival?

When stocks fall 35% and recover over 50% of that fall, they never make a new low. We’re going higher. This can be traced back to the 1950s.

If your not in the 1%, please take the time.

Headfake we're in a recession

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