Morgan Stanley points to the data plotted above — which reflects US money supply growth — as a leading indicator of inflation. As you can see, there's been a historic spike as the Fed has rolled out efforts designed to hasten a post-coronavirus economic recovery.
The firm qualifies this with another potentially damning observation: People just aren't worried about an inflation spike, nor are they positioned for one. Morgan Stanley sees this as short-sighted and potentially damaging."This is potentially more inflationary than appreciated which means back end rates can rise. Very few portfolios are prepared for such an outcome. Such shifts can happen quickly when they are so unexpected.
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