“Recently announced measures to curb South Africa’s second wave of Covid-19 will probably throw the economic recovery off course, with GDP likely to contract in Q1 if restrictions are extended,” it said in a note this week.from Level 1 shut down an estimated 20% of the economy in one fell swoop. That is significant and clearly a setback for the ongoing rebound from the massive 51% contraction in the second quarter of 2020.
“If the restrictions are extended further into Q1 and even ramped up, the risk of a contraction of GDP in Q1 will mount. This is certainly not out of the question, especially as the widespread distribution of vaccines is not imminent in South Africa,” Capital Economics noted.: “If lockdown is extended beyond 15 January, I think some manufacturing firms may also take a further break as people are not shopping as much during this new lockdown.
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