March jobs report to preview speed of US labor market recovery

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March began the economic reopening, but its jobs report will hint at how fast things are getting back to normal

Pedestrians walk along the Promenade on Forest Ave, a pedestrian-only experience featuring shopping and restaurants, in Laguna Beach Tuesday, March 30, 2021.The March payrolls report will preview just how fast the US labor market might recover.Economists see the report kicking off a period of growth averaging 1 million payrolls per month.After months of either meager gains or unexpected losses, March is poised to be a turning point for the US labor market's recovery.

Consensus estimates suggest March saw the strongest payroll gains in six months. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect nonfarm payrolls to climb by 660,000, nearly doubling the 379,000 gain seen in February. The unemployment rate is forecasted to dip to 6% from 6.2%. UBS holds a similarly encouraging outlook. Economists led by Seth Carpenter see the sharp acceleration in economic activity driving just as strong a jump in hiring. Payroll growth is forecasted to average 1 million throughout the second and third quarters as the economy reopens. With roughly 10 million jobs still lost to the pandemic, such a growth rate would recover more than half of the country's missing payrolls.

in March, according to ADP's monthly employment report. Though the reading landed just below the median estimate of 550,000, the increase was the largest seen since September and marked a third straight gain.rose to 719,000

 

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