By now, you’ve probably had plenty of time to digest last Friday’s jobs numbers. As a reminder, March U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 916,000, the largest gain since last August. Data for February was revised higher to show 468,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 379,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 647,000 jobs in March.
Seeing so many jobs come back in the hospitality industry was a very happy development. It means restaurants and bars are back open, which is great to see. It helps spending, and it helps the economy. People have said that there’s a bifurcation between the economy and the stock market, but hopefully this helps the economy catch up.
On the other hand, more money came out of the bond market Friday after the jobs report, with the 10-year yield climbing back up to around 1.74% to finish the old week. Volatility, however, is taking a spring nap. The Cboe Volatility Index fell to a new post-pandemic low of 17.33 by the end of the week, perhaps a sign that investors are less worried about choppiness ahead.
Last week’s March ISM manufacturing index brought some 1980s nostalgia, hitting its highest level since December 1983. That was 37 years ago, but the economies now and then have some similarities. Mainly, both are emerging from the depths amid major government stimulus . One difference now vs. then, of course, is the Fed’s zero interest rate policy. The Fed funds rate in December 1983 was 9.5%, and that was considered low, down from as high as 20% in 1981 .
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