The crew at BofA Global Research advocated for caution in a Monday report titled, “Inching toward euphoria,” amid a rebound from the COVID pandemic that has sent one indicator to a 13-year peak as bullishness grips the U.S. market.
BofA researchers led by star analyst Savita Subramanian say that the firm’s sell-indicator, which they describe as a reliable contrarian indicator, is flashing a warning sign if not a sell signal. The researchers note that there hasn’t been a 5% retreat in the broader market in the past six months even though such pullbacks tend to happen at least three times on average during a calendar year. The strategists also note that the market hasn’t seen a 10% retreat in stocks in the past 14 months. Pullbacks of that magnitude tend to occur at least once a year.
Subramanian and team, however, believe that this time around “tepid” rather than negative returns are likely ahead.
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