The fate of this year’s wild bank stock rally may depend on whether the major U.S. banks manage to show signs of increased loan activity in their third-quarter results that kick off next week.
With earnings now on tap for the megabanks as shown in the chart above, investors would do well to view per-share earnings carefully, because banks have been shifting loan loss reserves that they built up in the early days of the COVID pandemic to their bottom line as the economy has improved. This practice allows banks to operate within regulatory boundaries around loan loss reserves, while providing a lift to beat their quarterly EPS estimates.
On the bright side, however, banks more focused on capital market underwriting and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions remain in a stronger position against a background of record deal-making. This trend helps banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as dominant names in these arenas, with exposure as well by Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit, Bove said.
“In our view, the biggest catalyst for the banks is loan growth, particularly commercial loan growth, followed by rising interest rates,” Shanahan said. “One of the biggest challenges for the banks is that they had credit costs coming out of the pandemic, and they unwound that, so the reserves weren’t needed. As we got later into the recovery, the focus shifted to deposit growth and excess liquidity.
However, big companies may be nervous about borrowing and investing in plant equipment due to uncertainty about the Delta variant, concern over rising interest rates, as well as potential tax law changes from Congress.
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