he ease with which next-generation electric vehicle companies Rivian, Lucid and Fisker raked in billions of dollars from investors in 2021–combined with Tesla blowing past a once-unthinkable market cap of $1 trillion–marked the shift to an automotive era that’s racing to kick climate-warming carbon fuels.
Customer enthusiasm aside, neither Ford nor Rivian will be able to challenge Tesla as the EV volume leader in 2022 as they don’t yet have the capacity to build the hundreds of thousands of battery packs, electric motors and other components that are required. Meanwhile, Tesla may hit 1 million EV sales in 2021 and grow by a further 50% next year with the opening of new plants in Texas and Germany to bolster output from its Fremont, California, and Shanghai factories.
“By all accounts, the Ford F-150 Lightning should be a sales success,” says Jessica Caldwell, executive industry analyst for auto market researcher Edmunds. “It's priced significantly lower than most other EV trucks, and it's backed by the Ford name and the success of the F-Series, the best selling vehicle for decades in the U.S. That type of brand awareness may not offer the cool factor of the Cybertruck, but it can't be overlooked and doesn't come easily.
“So far, Tesla owns the EV market and has successfully warded off competitors. None has made a dent in Tesla's dominance,” says Michelle Krebs, executive analyst for Autotrader. “The Ford Lightning goes into production next year but its production is limited. Ford capped reservations at 200,000–and that is three years of backlog. … Production is the wild card.”
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