Economic growth in countries around the world will ease. Central banks will resume interest rate hikes and begin to withdraw the extraordinary measures taken to support economies through the pandemic.
South Africa, an emerging market, has largely benefitted from the increased demand for its commodities, optimism about the global rebound from the pandemic, and measures taken by central banks to not let economies in lockdown and major corporations fall apart. This resulted in trillions of dollars being pumped into economies, to the benefit of emerging markets.
Central banks, which are tasked with keeping prices of goods and services stable, tend to raise interest rates to tame inflation and stop the economy from overheating. Higher inflation is usually regarded as a negative for stocks because it erodes wealth, increases borrowing costs, increases input costs and reduces standards of living.
“The real concern is inflation in the US. If it stays above 4%, the equity [share] market will be clobbered. If it goes down to below 2%, the market might just be fine.”McCurrie prefers value shares – which appear to be undervalued in the marketplace or have a low valuation – over growth shares, which offer strong earnings growth and have the potential to outperform the market over time. McCurrie is backing banking shares on the JSE, which “look cheap even though they have gone up in 2021”.
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