That’s the conclusion of a market-timing model based on the ratio of gold’s price GC00, +0.62% to platinum’s PL00, +1.91%. You might think it’s good news that equities’ 12-month potential is as promising now as it was in early 2021. But, in fact, most stocks have struggled since then. A relatively small number of large-cap stocks have propelled the S&P 500 SPX, +1.23% higher, and the Russell 2000 index RUT, +2.65% is 9.
During the COVID pandemic of the past two years the ratio has been highly volatile: It spiked in the wake of the market’s waterfall decline in March 2020, anticipating the market’s huge potential over the subsequent 12 months. Since then it fell, rose again, and over the past couple of months has fallen back.
The ‘war puzzle‘ You might find it surprising that the gold-platinum ratio has fallen in recent months, which suggests that risk has declined. Yet in February Russia invaded Ukraine and, according to some, the conflict could lead to World War III. That certainly seems like the very definition of heightened risk.
Regardless of whether this solves the “war puzzle,” the message of the gold-platinum based indicator with a good market-timing record is that the stock market’s potential over the next 12 months is only moderately positive.
When prices approach last highs (November-December) picture will be more clear when growth ends. Now speculation prevails.
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