Australian investors should brace for a 20 per cent fall in corporate profits over the next six months, UBS warns, as an economic slowdown triggers a period of earnings downgrades which could extend into early next year.The forecast comes despite UBS tipping the Australian economy to avoid a recession. The broker noted that previous hard landings have seen ASX-wide earnings estimates cut by more than 30 per cent.
The brutal sell-off across global equities over the past month has swept up the previously resilient Australian sharemarket which is down nearly 7 per cent since the start of June. However, those sectors have succumbed to the threat posed by rising interest rates and slowing growth, with materials stocks down 8 per cent over the past month and financials down 11.5 per cent, making them the two worst performing sectors over that period.UBS noted that last week’s relief rally by the local bourse highlighted a reversal in some of the trends that have influenced the sharemarket this year.
The broker noted that in previous periods of ASX earnings downturns, share prices weren’t able to stage sustained recoveries until they were at least halfway through the cycle.
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