Business Maverick: Putin’s War Sends Russian Economy Back to 2018 in Single Quarter

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President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine set Russia’s economy back four years in the first full quarter after the attack, putting it on track for one of the longest downturns on record even if less sharply than initially feared.

In a bleak tally of the war for Russia, an economy that was picking up speed at the start of 2022 swung into a contraction during the second quarter. Data on Friday showed gross domestic product shrank for the first time in over a year but fared better than forecast, dropping an annual 4%.

“The economy will move toward a new long-term equilibrium,” Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin said at a briefing in Moscow. “As the economy undergoes a restructuring, its growth will resume.” Fiscal stimulus and repeated rounds of monetary easing in recent months have also started to kick in, blunting the impact of international sanctions. Oil extraction has been recovering and spending by households showed signs of stabilization.

 

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