Yesterday saw a fresh 15-year high in Two year treasury yields, at 4.36%.The Two year is trading at 4.36% yield while the 10 year nears 4%. And then the 30 year is all the way down at 3.83%.
This is curve inversion. And this is often a sign that investors are getting more and more bearish. Going into a bank and being offered a loan for 30 years at half a percent less than they would charge you for a loan term of two years – well that’s distortion, on a massive scale. Curve inversion will often happen in Treasuries when market participants are bearish. So, rather than investing in stocks or parking in short-term Treasuries to grab the yield in a non-committal fashion, they can also look at onboarding longer-dated Treasuries which, in the event of eventual rate cuts, could see principal appreciation.
In essence, the longer-end of the curve can invert with yields going below the shorter-end as investors anticipate an eventual backdrop that would necessitate lower rates from the Fed. Again, the big take away is massive distortion, and given the run in short-term yields, we can also see a jump in the US Dollar, which has been going on since June of last year. The US Dollar trend has continued to grow more and more strong, as indicated by the increasing angle of the
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