As investors look back after a brutal year for markets, many are asking themselves the same question: was there anything we could have done to sidestep a selloff that began early in the first quarter? As it turns out, the signs were there, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
“A 2021 full-year gain for the S&P 500 in excess of 20%, followed by a decline in the first two months of the year, implied that a digestion of gains was underway and that the typical correction averaged 11%,” he said in a note to clients on Tuesday. The ‘Santa Claus rally’ As MarketWatch’s Vivien Chen reported over the weekend, history suggests that U.S. stocks typically finish higher during the “Santa Claus rally” period that encompasses the last five trading sessions of the year, plus the first two trading sessions of the new year. This year, the period began on Friday and will continue through Jan. 4, 2023.
“The S&P 500 rose in price during the first five days of the new year 67% of the time, resulting in an average annual gain of 12.9% and an 82% [frequency of advance]. A negative reading for the first five days resulted in a flat annual gain and an unimpressive 54% [frequency of advance],” he added.
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