“2023 is likely to mark the weakest sales year since 2001,” Sondhi said in the note.
Still, when it comes to further price erosion, some markets will be harder hit than others. Ontario, British Columbia and the Atlantic region will experience the sharpest declines, TD said. But even then, things will be more dire in Ontario and B.C., with declines expected to wipe out any gains made in 2022. Meanwhile, home prices in the Prairies and Newfoundland and Labrador are expected to fall less sharply, thanks to better housing affordability in those regions.
By then, inflation should have come down, putting interest rate increases off the table. The economy should also be growing again as high immigration levels fuel population growth, juicing demand for homes. That will help sales and lift prices. But affordability challenges will keep the the housing market from getting too hot, TD said. As a result, price gains could be stronger in the Prairies and Newfoundland and Labrador, with overall growth getting weighed down in Ontario, B.C.
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