The preliminary result was better than the 3% decline officials expected as recently as the early fall and far short of the 10% drop some forecasters saw when the sanctions first hit just over a year ago.Hardest-hit were wholesale and retail trade, as well as manufacturing and transport, the Federal Statistics Service said on Monday, while mining, agriculture, construction and government spending grew last year.“It’s a good result,” said Dmitry Polevoy, economist at Locko Bank.
The central bank projects growth may resume this year. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economy will lose $190 billion in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its pre-war trajectory.
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