Spring is in the air, the banking crisis appears to have been contained for the time being and it’s time to take a look at how the real economy is faring.
Economists polled by Reuters expect a rise of 240,000 in March, so anything short of that would suggest the Fed could cut rates this year as tighter monetary policy bites and growth softens. Historically, Q1 is the strongest for the dollar. On average, over the last 50 years, the dollar has gained 1.1% between January and March, while Q4 is its weakest, with an average drop of 0.8%.
Bond markets were whipsawed this quarter and trading became so challenging that investors drew parallels with the market environment during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. Across the Tasman, bets are still for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike by another quarter point on Wednesday, and traders place a good chance of the same again by July.
Monthly purchasing managers indexes, the real-time indicators of business conditions, are due out in the first week of April. The early “flash” version of this survey for the U.S. showed manufacturers’ new orders had fallen for the sixth straight month.