A broad stock-market rally Friday has the S&P 500 on the verge of exiting its longest bear market since 1948. Investors want to know if the move is for real or merely a fake out.
The S&P 500 SPX advanced 64 points, or 1.5%, to 4,285 Friday afternoon, on track to settle at its highest level since Aug. 18, 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A close above 4,292.48 would mark a 20% rally off the bear-market closing low of 3,577.03 set on Oct. 12, 2022. That would meet a widely used definition of the end of a bear market.
“A strong expectation that the debt-ceiling deal will become law this afternoon upon President Biden’s signature is generating optimism among investors. While job and wage growth remained persistent in May, investors are focusing on the increasing unemployment rate reflected in this morning’s Employment Situation Report, which has boosted sentiment,” wrote José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers.
The S&P 500 has risen 11.7% year-to-date, with a substantial portion of total returns being driven by a handful of large-cap technology firms such as NVIDIA Corp. NVDA , Alphabet Inc. GOOGL , and Apple Inc. AAPL , after the recent burst of investor optimism in artificial intelligence has driven the surge in technology stocks.
“Market needs to see that the rally is more than just those mega tech names, [but] in the broader market, especially the Russell 2000, because that’s so closely associated with distress in the credit markets and the banks. That helps confirm this rally,” Krosby told MarketWatch via phone.
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