The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge that measures price changes for a basket of goods and services, increased 4% for the year ending in May. That represents a sharp pullback from April’s 4.9% and is slightly below economists’ expectations for a 4.1% gain, according to Refinitiv. It’s the 11th consecutive month that inflation has slowed. On a monthly basis, prices ticked up 0.1%. Economists were expecting prices to increase by 0.2% from April to May.
The largest contributor to inflation is the shelter category, which economists expect will fall in the months ahead. Shelter costs, as measured in the CPI, tend to lag more than other categories as the BLS collects rent data every six months and most rents don’t change too frequently. Private-sector data shows that apartment rents have fallen in recent months, suggesting an eventual cooldown in shelter prices will show up in the CPI.