President Joe Biden has been touting what he says areHe has claimed credit for inflation coming down, the strength of the jobs market, and investment in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure. He celebrates rising wages as evidence that he is “growing the economy from the bottom up and the middle out.”
Perhaps most importantly, wages are rising too quickly. Average hourly earnings were up 4.4 percent in July compared with a year earlier. The employment cost index rose one percent in the second quarter and was up 4.5 percent in the 12 months through June.It looks more like the kind of wage growth you would expect to see with four percent inflation.
At the Jackson Hole monetary policy symposium on Friday, Powell stated directly that “evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and.” In other words, unless the economy slows down dramatically, the Fed is going to have to start hiking again next year.
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