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Market seasonality is playing out almost perfectly as Wall Street feels discomfort

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The S&P 500's now-6% decline from its cycle peak began almost too perfectly.

"The discomfort you're feeling is perfectly normal for someone in your condition," said the doctor. "But if it doesn't go away in a few weeks, call me and we might need to reassess." Investors right now are essentially that patient, reassured by those who have seen many such cases that the fitful unpleasantness they're experiencing is the routine, perfectly predictable effect of current circumstances. In this case, the time of year.

Wall Street is correctly consumed with the question of whether the consumer and broader economy can handle the 10-year Treasury well above 4%, 30-year mortgage rates of 7.5% and high-grade corporate debt costs near 6%. The signals are mixed, the current data still implying resilience in labor markets and spending, with some fraying around the edges of the trends.

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