Latest market-sensitive news and views - Oct. 6

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Reference price increase debate | Gas prices tumble | Exxon seeking acquisition of Pioneer

Oil prices fell about 2%, extending the previous session's losses of nearly 6%, as worries about fuel demand outweighed an OPEC+ decision to maintain oil output cuts, keeping supply tight. Global benchmark Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have declined about $10 a barrel in less than 10 days after edging close to $100 in late September. The combined percentage drop over the last two days was the steepest since May for both crude benchmarks.

Fiscal year 2023 has seen a total of seven monthly trade deficits, tying the previous record set in fiscal year 2022. Cumulatively, agricultural exports in FY 2023 have reached $166.02 billion, while imports stand at $180.03 billion, leading to a trade deficit of $14.01 billion. — Exxon Mobil in advanced talks for potential $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, a prominent shale-focused producer. Pioneer's CEO, Scott Sheffield, is set to retire by the end of the year. If finalized, this deal could be valued at up to $60 billion, making it Exxon's most significant acquisition since its merger with Mobil in 1999. Exxon has been actively seeking acquisitions in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico for several years.

— Oil prices plummet, bringing relief to drivers and central bankers. Oil prices have experienced a sharp decline after reaching high levels just last week. U.S. crude oil prices dropped by 5.6% to $84.22 a barrel, marking the most significant one-day decline in a year. Prices fell even further to $82.24 a barrel, reaching a five-week low. This comes as a stark reversal after recent spikes in oil prices, where some predictions even suggested prices could reach $100 a barrel.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov expressed the urgent need for more defense systems in Kyiv to protect the country from acts of terror. There are concerns about a potential reduction in military aid from Western allies, making it crucial for Ukraine to bolster its defense capabilities. Under the updated regulations, diesel shipments can restart, provided that the fuel is delivered to Russian ports via pipelines, particularly to the western ports that account for most exported volumes. This move is expected to provide relief to importers, as Russia is a major seaborne exporter of diesel-type fuels.

CHINA UPDATE — Second Fukushima wastewater release draws muted response in China, South Korea, and Hong Kong. Japan's second release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant garnered a relatively muted response in China, South Korea, and Hong Kong compared to the first discharge.

Despite the calmer response, mainland China and Hong Kong are maintaining their bans on Japanese seafood, imposed in response to the first wastewater release. Hong Kong's environment secretary stated that the seafood ban would continue if Japan continues to release nuclear-contaminated water. Mainland China has also upheld its blanket ban on Japanese seafood, despite Japan's assurances of safety.— WTO slashes 2023 global trade growth forecast.

— Global food prices remain steady in September despite sugar price surge. In September, global food prices showed minimal change, with the Food Price Index compiled by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization registering at 121.5, just slightly down from August's upwardly revised figure of 121.6 in August, leaving it 10.7% under year ago and 24.0% below the March 2022 record. Despite this stability, food prices remained 10.7% lower than the same period last year and 24.

Bottom line: While the FAO index for 2022 stood at 143.7 and 125.7 in 2021, indicating some alleviation of pressure on importing countries, it also signifies that food prices, overall, remain elevated compared to previous years. The new map alters the 1st and 2nd districts, currently represented by GOP Reps. Jerry Carl and Barry Moore respectively. The two could face off against each other in the newly drawn 1st District.

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