The U.S. stock market doesn’t deserve to fall as much as it has because of higher interest rates alone — and soon investors will begin to act on this realization. The conviction that stock prices fall when interest rates rise is so universally held that few stop to examine it.
But unexamined and untested beliefs can all too easily lead us astray. As Humphrey Neill, the father of contrarian analysis, constantly reminded his clients: “When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.” The first step in a re-examination is to remind ourselves that interest rates and inflation are highly correlated. This has been true historically, as you can see from the accompanying chart.
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