Will Israel-Gaza war sink stocks and shake the global economy? Watch oil prices.

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William Watts is MarketWatch markets editor. In addition to managing markets coverage, he writes about stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, including oil. He also writes about global macro issues and trading strategies. During his time at MarketWatch, Watts has served in key roles in the Frankfurt, London, New York and Washington, D.C., newsrooms.

That’s in keeping with the historical tendency of investors to look past geopolitical conflict and human tragedy, but it isn’t necessarily the last word. That last word will likely belong to oil traders.

For now, however, the jump in oil prices isn’t signaling a permanent shock. Sure, Brent crude BRN00, +0.11%, the global benchmark, jumped 4.2% on Monday to end at $88.15 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude CL.1, +0.03% CL00, +0.03% surged $3.59, or 4.3% to $86.38 a barrel — the biggest one-day jump for both grades since April 3.The jump was impressive, but it comes after a big pullback last week that saw both WTI and Brent retreat from 2023 highs near $100 a barrel.

It’s a reminder that “while neither Israel nor Gaza are major oil producers, everything that happens geopolitically in the Middle East invariably ends up affecting oil prices,” he said. “The closest historical scenarios we could use would be 9/11 and the start of the Ukraine war. But because both took place on Western soil, they might not be adequate,” d’Assier said.

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