The Stock Market Has Ample Reasons to Fall. Why It's Taking Off Instead.

Stocks are rising despite a stack of reasons to fall: war in the Middle East, confounding economic data, and a House of Representatives without a speaker. Thank a decline in bond yields driven by less-hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, plus investors seeking safety in Treasuries.

“A market obsessively focused on Treasury yields saw rates edge lower due to the market’s interpretation of the remarks in addition to global buying of Treasuries as a safe haven during the intensifying conflict between Israel and Hamas,” wrote Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, on Tuesday.

In recent days, Fed officials have acknowledged the rise in bond yields and how it affects the economy and financial conditions, helping the bank to put the brakes on demand and inflation—effectively doing some of the Fed’s work for it. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cut straight to the point in remarks on Tuesday morning. “I don’t think we need to increase rates anymore,” he said.

Since the summer, investors have viewed strong jobs and economic data through a good-news-is-bad-news lens. The logic has been that signs of strength in the economy mean that it could weather more interest-rate hikes from the Fed if central bankers decide that is needed to stamp out inflation. That same dynamic, which remains in play, also affects the odds of cuts in 2024.

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