The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, is struggling to maintain some bullishness after bouncing off support at 4200 . There are certainly headwinds presented by yet another Mideast crisis, but the technical picture presents problems of its own.
Equity-only put-call ratios have been somewhat split in their outlook recently. The standard equity-only put-call ratio rolled over to a buy signal about a week ago, and one can see that it is still declining from its recent peak. However, the weighted ratio and the total ratio did not generate buy signals and are now making new relative highs on their charts. Hence, they remain on sell signals and will do so until they roll over and begin to trend downward.
However, there is a negative aspect of the VIX chart as well. A new trend of VIX sell signal has been generated, denoted by the circle on the right-hand side of the VIX chart. It occurs when both VIX and its 20-day moving average are above the 200-day moving average. This is the first such sell signal since the one in September 2022 .
Long 8 expiring CRON CRON, -3.31% Oct 2 calls: Sell these calls and do not replace them. The takeover rumors may still be in place, but the lack of positive action leads us to believe that we should exit. Long 1 expiring SPY Oct 428 put and Short 1 SPY Oct 408 put: Established in line with the “New Highs vs. New Lows” sell signal. Stop out if New Highs outnumber New Lows on the NYSE for two consecutive days. Since this signal has not been stopped out, sell the spread that is owned, and buy 1 SPY Nov 428 put to replace it.Long 2 DLR DLR, -4.08% Nov 118 puts: Hold these puts as long as the DLR weighted put-call ratio is on a sell signal.
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