It’s the middle of earnings season, but the Treasury market is doing more to move the stock market than any company fundamentals.
Bonds’ influence on stocks was on display once again this past week. On Thursday, a $24 billion auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed some cracks in demand. Primary dealers were forced to accept 25% of the offering, more than double the average over the past year. The auction had a large tail, meaning the Treasury needed to entice buyers with a premium yield over where 30-year bonds were trading in the open market. The S&P 500, which had been rallying, fell 0.8% that day.
“A failed Treasury auction is what really keeps me up,” says Tim Horan, chief investment officer for fixed income at Chilton Trust. “It would certainly be a Minsky moment,” using a term that refers to a market collapse brought on by the sudden unwinding of excessive debt. “In the near term, the risk is that yields go higher,” says Adam Abbas, co-head of fixed income at Harris Associates. “There’s a lot of Treasury supply out there, and the deficit narrative is gaining traction—there doesn’t seem to be a real long-term solution in Washington.”While fiscal policy is on the ascent, the influence of the Federal Reserve hasn’t waned completely. Yes, the Fed may be done raising interest rates.
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