Brazilian stocks are off to a solid start in 2019, but whether they can continue to climb depends on one major policy shift: reforming Brazil's overcrowded public pension system.
"We are on the bullish side in the sense that we are quite confident pension reform is going to be approved," said Viccenzo Paternostro, partner at Legacy Capital, a Brazil-based hedge fund."Pension reform is crucial because, otherwise, nobody is going to invest in Brazil because of fiscal issues, inflation and so on."
This system has raised concern over its sustainability and is viewed by many market participants as a brake on Brazil's recovery from a massive recession. Bolsonaro's pension-overhaul proposal, which was submitted last month, aims to save the government more than 1 trillion reals — or about $270 billion — over a 10-year period. This proposal is far more ambitious than former President Michel Temer's, which targeted 600 billion reals in savings. The measure would also implement a fixed retirement age for men and women at 65 and 62 , respectively.
Morgan Stanley economists expect a House vote in August, while Goldman Sachs does not see pension reform turning into law before October. Brazilian stocks are down sharply this month. The Bovespa index has fallen 3.9 percent in March while the EWZ ETF has dropped 8.7 percent.
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