Just one week after posting its worst weekly loss over a year, and after a week of unfavorable economic data for both the US economic outlook and Federal Reserve expectations, we saw thegained more than that, as last week’s sour combo of slowing US growth but rising inflation was offset by the better-than-expected earnings from Microsoft on maps in hope that when China is good, everything else will follow suit.
All in all, last week ended on a positive note; the technology stocks did the heavy lifting while Exxon Mobil reported weak results in the Q1 because of subdued nat gas prices. This week, two more Magnificent 7 companies – Apple last Friday. The yen bears are testing the Japanese officials’ patience and wondering why no one does or says anything to stop the bleeding.
If they can’t pass this message this week, I will be questioning the Fed’s credibility and intentions. Therefore, risks in theremain tilted to the upside, especially if inflation elsewhere continues to fall, as it is the expectation for the Eurozone. Due this week, the Eurozone countries will be revealing the April inflation reads and core inflation in the Eurozone is expected to ease to 2.6% from 2.9% printed a month earlier.
The barrel of US crude could see support near the $82pb as besides the tense geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, the reflation trade – that relies on softer central bank policies and narrow supply due to OPEC’s efforts – remain favorable for an extension of the rally. Yet a hawkish Fed message this week is a downside risk to this positive outlook – especially if the US finally convinces Israel to cease fire in Gaza.
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