Equities seek to recover losses, Disney falls on earnings: Catalysts

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Goldman Sachs,Seana Smith,Madison Mills

On today's episode of Catalysts, co-hosts Seana Smith and Madison Mills explore current market dynamics and notable corporate earnings reports. Markets take ...

Moving markets today.Looking to recoup its losses, adding back $150 billion in market cap on Tuesday and video contributing two thirds of those gains.The big question is, what is the next catalyst going to be for the big tech sector we're going to discuss and Disney surprising investors with its first ever streaming profit, but it doesn't look like it's enough to offset the weakening parts demand.We certainly see consumers behaving in a way.

But clearly as the focus changes onto the monetization of A I from here on, you don't want to pay very high multiples and you want to see actually the monetization showing up in earnings and clearly this is a secular trend.What does that tell us if you are maybe seeing more of an opportunity now in tech, given the sell off or the drop that we had seen?Because here we are with the S and B just above 50,300.

If you look at earnings growth broadly speaking, S and P overall, close to 10% again, higher than long term averages, if anything, the only difference now is that the magnitude of surprise has come down across S and P which is fine.There are that said a few red flags. So for example, in discretionary, we are cautious that we like services exposure over goods exposure, right?

How is the approach that you're using today and now different maybe than those volatile or more dramatic moves that we had seen in the past?So I think there are big, big differences. For example, if you look at now what is happening in the delivers market, the whole term structure has gone up and two days ago, it completely inverted.So I think what is missing right now is if we don't have like in 2008, you had a housing and a mortgage crisis, right?

So I think when you look at a lot of and you have a fed which has learned from its past moves remains highly, highly data driven and focused. The amount of stimulus we injected into the economy was significantly higher than the amount of lost wages, post pandemic, right?So it goes on and on and yet we are doing fine, right?But I think these moves are very technical short covering systematic driven and they're not going to last.

It sort of makes sense to be a buyer or nibbler as some of the strategists that have come on air said, right?And saying I'm calling bottom, but it's ok if I was looking at sectors that I liked and they're all getting weighed down by some version of a yen carry trade and a short volatility spike in the big hitting 60.

Additionally, moving into a softer economy and a consumer that is watching their budgets, the parks got hurt and, and New Johnson can speak to getting to profitability and streaming, but the numbers are very small.Uh The businesses are diverse and I don't think investors really need to look at the near term opportunity uh because they can't put all these businesses align for positive growth.

Uh It's just really challenging uh against more streamlined companies like Netflix uh that are really uh ahead of the curve, you know, in this area of streaming, it's a very tough area to compete. You've got Paramount Warner Brothers Netflix, of course, among others, which of those names do you think stands to gain the most from capitalizing off a revenue moving forward?

Well, it was kind of a brush over on the quote, not much said there, but essentially that they're talking.Uh at least 9 billion, maybe more.Uh didn't like general entertainment.Uh the deal will get done.Um I'm, I'm not sure that's a driver or a catalyst for the stock.Thanks so much for hopping on here with us this morning, Director of Equity Research at CFR A.

And from that point forward, I think if management can guide the double digit earnings growth next year, eps growth next year, that's what investors are looking for now that we do have a change at the top here.Do you think that that is the right move?I think that a lot of investors were expecting that first, that they would miss the guidance that they revised to last quarter and that the real number was somewhere with a six handle on it on eps.

Yeah, the great question ma I think as I, as we look at the landscape, the political landscape and what it could do, right.Socks, these insurance company socks, I think CV S you know, is in that bucket, drug pricing is another area of focus for politicians as we think about the election.But I would say on a more fundamental basis, I mean, it, it's probably going to take more Congress than the presidential election to make these changes.

 

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