History shows that investors who are worried about the U.S. economy falling into a recession don't need to rush into a defensive position, according to Ned Davis Research. Ed Clissold, the firm's chief U.S. strategist, said in a note to clients that the risk of an imminent recession is low and that investors can stay the course for now.
The S & P 500 typically peaks about 6 months before a recession starts, according to NDR. The index hit its most recent record high in mid-July. And even if that July high water mark does prove to be the peak for this cycle, there's a decent chance that any losses over the next few months are modest, according to Clissold.
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