The Sahm Rule recession indicator has been triggered. The yield curve has finally un-inverted, which, if it steepens aggressively, is a sure-fire recession signal.After all, the precious metals sector has performed poorly during the last three bear markets in stocks.
In fact, the current context is most similar to the two points in history when precious metals diverged from stock market bears. Precious Metals will diverge as capital flows out of conventional stocks and into precious metals, which are massively under-owned relative to conventional stocks. Sure, there would be some selling and corrections along the way. There were multiple 20% declines in gold stocks during 1972-1973 and 2001-2002.
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