TheUS labor market report on Fridaydid not come as a clear surprise on the negative side. As a result, there was no clear market reaction, but rather a fair amount of back and forth before equilibrium was established. The fact that this was slightly below the levels before the BLS publication is not particularly revealing. What is important is that, at current levels, visible USD-negative surprises are needed to weaken the Greenback further.
But it seems courageous of the market to bet so heavily that this trend will become so dramatically more visible before the end of this year that the Fed will at least cut rates by 50 basis points at one of its remaining three meetings in 2024.” “One should not be deceived by the word ‘market expectation’. A market expectation does not indicate what the market is most likely to anticipate.
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