The International Monetary Fund recently had the following to say about a struggling economy: “Structural weaknesses remained largely unaddressed, including a chronically weak tax administration, a difficult business environment, inefficient and loss-making SOEs, amid a large informal economy. Without urgent policy action, economic and financial stability could be at risk, and growth prospects will be insufficient to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population.
Pakistan’s economy was also “overheating” – it had been growing at an unsustainable rate, with mounting inflation pressures. This hardly begins to describe South Africa. Among other things, Montalto notes the long-term structure of South Africa’s debt – bondholders are not about to start knocking down the doors tomorrow – and sees investor demand for increased issuance.Given the poor performance on equities we think bonds look broadly fair value and will move to be somewhat cheap as this process goes on so as to attract asset reallocation from equities.”
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