U.S. stocks moved lower at the start of trade Wednesday as investors gauged the potential recession signal offered by the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve, while the intensifying U.S.-China trade war and the rising chances of a no-deal Brexit take their toll on global economic growth.
The spread between the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.28% and that of the 2-year TMUBMUSD02Y, -1.82% fell deeper into negative territory Tuesday. This so-called “inversion” of the yield curve has been a reliable warning sign of recession historically. The 3-month/10-year measure of the curve — seen as a more reliable recession warning sign than the 2-year/10-year measure — has been inverted since May.
Skeptics have argued that the inversion might not offer as strong a signal in the current environment, which has seen central banks around the world employ bond buying in recent years in an effort to push down long-term yields. Which stocks are in focus? Shares of Tiffany & Co. TIF, +3.46% fell 1.8% after posting second-quarter earnings. The luxury jeweler reported second-quarter earnings that fell less than expected, though revenue fell just shy of Wall Street forecasts.
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