People wearing protective face masks walk past a screen showing Nikkei index, following the outbreak of the coronavirus, outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan February 25, 2020.
Hopes that the epidemic that started in China would be over in a few months and economic activity would return to normal have been shattered, as new infections reported around the world now surpass those in China. "It is fair to say the impact of the coronavirus will be clearly much bigger than the US-China trade war. So the Fed does not have a reason to take a wait-and-see stance next month," he said.
The CBOE volatility index often called the "fear index", jumped to 39.16 on Thursday, the highest level in about two years, well out of the 11-20 range of recent months. The global rout knocked mainland Chinese shares lower, which have been relatively well supported this month, as new coronavirus cases in the country fell and Beijing doled out measures to shore up economic growth.
Historically an inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable leading indicators of a US recession.
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