US economic activity has started to bounce from its COVID-19 recession lows, but focus on short-term improvements ignores the pain that could stick around for years to come.
From 1947 to 2007, per capita real GDP of the US economy rose very predictably and steadily over time by about 2.2% per person per year. Returning to the post-2009 trend is much easier than to the pre-2008 trend; it requires just 1.6% per person real output growth per year, lower hanging fruit than the 2.2% from pre-crisis.There are three primary reasons.First, the permanent closure of businesses, especially small businesses. A team of economists from the University of Chicagoa paper last week that suggested 40% of job losses through April were thanks to permanent business shutdowns.
Weak post-financial crisis capex was one widely-cited reason for slow growth. The economy never saw investment rise above 5% of GDP in the last cycle , which is usually the low point during previous recessions.
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