China’s Stocks Are on a Tear. Can They Keep Going?

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Some strategists are cautious about fundamentals, but investor momentum, strong economic data, and supportive policies could give the rally room to run.

Chinese stocks soared on Monday, extending a five-year high, after more—relatively—upbeat economic data suggested a recovery, even in the harder hit services sector.

A spate of strong economic data has helped, including industrial profit and a better-than-expected private gauge of the services sector from Caixin hit a decade-high of 58.4 in June. In a note to clients, Miguel Chanco, Pantheon Macro’s senior Asia economist, said China’s private sector was finally awaking from its long slumber, which should help the durability of the economic recovery.

Also helping: China’s plans to let domestic commercial banks get securities licenses just as Beijing opens its financial markets to foreign banks. The move bolstered shares of domestically listed brokerage firms. That has led Qi to favor stocks that benefit from the global pandemic, such as health-care companies, those that have developed strong online distribution that can benefit as people shift to digital more—including even older Chinese who started using digital grocery services—and stocks that are expected to recover once the global economy recovers but that face limited supply chain disruptions.

 

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