also explained in 2017 that voters who decided on a candidate at the last minute heavily broke for Trump in several of the key swing states he narrowly won, an effect that is impossible for polls to capture far in advance.wrote in 2018
that the research at the time showed that the 2016 presidential polls "were about as accurate as polls of presidential elections have been on average since 1972." "The media narrative that polling accuracy has taken a nosedive is mostly bull----, in other words," Silver wrote. "Polls were never as good as the media assumed they were before 2016 — and they aren't nearly as bad as the media seems to assume they are now. In reality, not that much has changed."The conditions under which the 2016 and 2020 elections are taking place couldn't be more different.
This election taking place during a severe pandemic, a bad economic downturn, and is coming off weeks of historic protests and reckoning over police brutality. All of these factors are now shaping the views of the electorate in waysIn 2016, Trump was running as an outsider against Hillary Clinton, a Democrat who served in the Obama administration after two terms of Obama and therefore represented the status quo by default.
Now, Trump, is an incumbent representing the status quo, including the federal government's unpopular response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and voters are judging him as such. As Trump is learning, Biden is far more difficult to successfully attack than Clinton, a controversial and polarizing figure who was dogged with a scandal over her usage of a private email server and
This is getting silly. FakeNews
Haha haha haha haha haha haha. Okay okay let me catch my breath Haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha Haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha ha....ohhhh I can't breath... Haha haha haha haha ha haha Ha!
that was close call to make history of female president of US but she failed
So last time we got it really really really wrong. But baby, this time, I'm telling you the truth. Please believe me this time.
they werent that wrong in 2016, Hillary did win the popular vote
We'll see how durable after he released that terrible tax plan. If Trump would stop talking about confederate generals long enough to emphasize his payroll tax cuts (which he should do NOW) & running adds on Biden's theft plans, we could see another shocking result in November.
Nope. Don’t trust the polls. Vote.
Loooool. 96% Hillary!!! Nuff said
Donald Trump cheated in 2016 and got caught. He obstruct justice until now.
ContentedIndie I already know why. Lack of third party impact, and Biden holding at 50% steadily. See the Polling on FiveThirtyEight: July 20, 2020 (9:36 AM) Biden: 50.4% (+8.8) Trump: 41.6% Others: 2.0% July 20, 2016 Clinton: 41.0% (+2.7) Trump: 38.3% Johnson: 8.8%
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