—there is much we don’t know. Is Covid-19 on its way out or surging? Will it make a deadly return in 2021 like round two of the Spanish flu? Will the global experiment in modern monetary theory lift whole economies or just boost asset prices? Will it sow inflation or will recessionary deflation continue? Other trends are clearer.
Stocks have held up more than one would have expected, given the Great Depression-like collapse of commerce in the second quarter. Tech has surged. What markets see is a reasonably fast recovery—not a V-shape, but a “skinny U” as Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business, put it recently. Still, it may take 18 to 24 months to return to January 2020 levels of global GDP.
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